This folder contains 2 files written in the WinBUGS / JAGS language. These files may be run from WinBUGS, but are really designed to be called from R. The files represent 2 models: 1. "bayes model.txt" represents the fully Bayesian model 2. "mixSIR model.txt" represents the model that fixes the source means / variances at the MLEs. To run: 1. load all of these files into a single folder on your desktop. 2. install R, JAGS, and the necessary R packages (in the script file) 3. open R, and set the R working directory to the folder you created 4. open the file "R_script.r" and run it to replicate the simulations described in the paper